Kalshi vs the sportsbooks
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (legal in all 50 US states) — its prices float on supply and demand with no house edge baked in. US sportsbooks set their own lines and bake in vigorish (the “vig” — typically 4–5% on moneylines). After de-vigging book odds, the two markets often disagree by 1–10%+, especially on smaller games and futures. The deep-research pages below break down each pairing with brand profiles, funding/scale facts, feature-by-feature tables, regulatory comparisons, and live edge feeds.
Side-by-side comparisons
Every brand we compare
Quick-reference facts on all 9 brands SportsBookISH covers. Click any name for the full review (with funding rounds, key investors, feature comparison table, FAQ, and citations).
| Brand | Category | Founded | Regulator | Monthly volume | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi → | prediction market | 2018 | Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) | ~$200M+ (sports + politics combined, peaks during major events) | ~$2B (reported, 2025) |
| Polymarket → | prediction market | 2020 | No US regulator (settled with CFTC in Jan 2022; operates outside US jurisdiction) | ~$200M+ average; spikes to $1B+ on major political event months | ~$1B+ (reported Series B; later rounds may be higher) |
| DraftKings → | sportsbook | 2012 | State gaming commissions (varies by state) | Handle of ~$3–4B/month (peak during NFL season) | Market cap typically $15–25B depending on quarter |
| FanDuel → | sportsbook | 2009 | State gaming commissions (varies by state) | Handle of ~$3–4B/month (US); Flutter Group ~$30B+ globally | Flutter market cap ~$30–40B; FanDuel US arm valued internally at $20B+ |
| BetMGM → | sportsbook | 2018 | State gaming commissions (varies) | Handle of ~$1.5–2B/month | Entain has previously valued its 50% stake at ~$5B |
| Caesars → | sportsbook | 2021 | State gaming commissions | Handle ~$800M–$1B/month | Market cap typically $5–10B |
| Fanatics → | sportsbook | 2023 | State gaming commissions | Handle ~$300–500M/month (rapid growth) | Fanatics Inc. valued at $31B (Dec 2022 round) |
| BetRivers → | sportsbook | 2018 | State gaming commissions | Handle ~$400–600M/month | Market cap typically $1–3B |
| Circa Sports → | sportsbook | 2019 | Nevada Gaming Control Board + state gaming commissions (CO, IA, IL, KY) | Undisclosed (private); reportedly $50–100M/month handle | N/A — private |
Why compare Kalshi to sportsbooks?
Kalshi's peer-to-peer pricing model creates legitimate edges when its market disagrees with the consensus across major US sportsbooks. A 3% edge on a moneyline is meaningful; a 5%+ edge is rare and usually profitable over time. SportsBookISH refreshes every Kalshi market against 11+ sportsbooks every 5 minutes so you can spot these gaps in real time.
What about Pinnacle or Bookmaker?
We currently track US-licensed books available via The Odds API. Pinnacle / Bookmaker are offshore and not in the dataset. We use the median across the books we do track as the “sharp” reference — it's less precise than a Pinnacle line but available legally and updates more reliably for the markets Kalshi covers.
How to interpret “edge”
We compute the de-vigged implied probability for each side at each book, take the median across books, then subtract Kalshi's implied probability. Positive numbers mean Kalshi is pricing the outcome cheaper than the books — a buy edge. Negative means Kalshi is overpriced. Edges under 1.5% are usually noise; 3%+ is actionable; 5%+ is rare and worth investigating.