Live Sports Arbitrage
Two-way markets where combined implied probability of opposing outcomes is under 100%. Stake both sides in proportion → guaranteed profit regardless of result. Cross-platform arbs (Kalshi/Polymarket vs sportsbook) are surfaced first because exchange accounts don't get limited the way sportsbook accounts do.
Opportunities
7
Avg profit
8.27%
Biggest profit
38.89%
Avg combined %
93.4%
Top 7 arbs, ranked by profit %. Stake split shown for a $1,000 total bankroll.
| Market | Profit | YES leg | NO leg | Stake $1k | League | Start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights Stanley Cup® Winner: Vegas Golden Knights vs Carolina Hurricanes | +38.89% | Kalshi40.5% +147 | Polymarket12.5% +700 | YES $826 NO $174 | NHL | — |
| Houston Milwaukee vs Houston | +6.27% | Kalshi35.5% +182 | BetMGM58.6% -142 | YES $377 NO $623 | MLB | May 30, 4:10 PM |
| Miami Miami vs New York M | +4.41% | Kalshi41.5% +141 | FanDuel54.3% -119 | YES $433 NO $567 | MLB | May 30, 4:10 PM |
| Washington San Diego vs Washington | +3.67% | Kalshi32.5% +208 | FanDuel64.0% -177 | YES $337 NO $663 | MLB | May 30, 4:05 PM |
| Detroit Detroit vs Chicago WS | +1.92% | Kalshi1.0% +9900 | BetMGM97.1% -3366 | YES $10 NO $990 | MLB | May 30, 2:10 PM |
| Baltimore Toronto vs Baltimore | +1.51% | Kalshi47.5% +111 | Caesars51.0% -104 | YES $482 NO $518 | MLB | May 30, 4:05 PM |
| Vegas Golden Knights Stanley Cup® Winner: Vegas Golden Knights vs Carolina Hurricanes | +1.22% | Kalshi40.5% +147 | DraftKings58.3% -140 | YES $410 NO $590 | NHL | — |
FAQ
What is sports arbitrage?
An arbitrage opportunity exists when the implied probabilities of opposing outcomes on the same market sum to less than 100%. If YES is offered at 48% on Kalshi and NO is offered at 49% on DraftKings (combined 97%), a properly split bet on both produces a guaranteed ~3% profit regardless of which side wins.
How do I bet an arb?
Stake each side in proportion to the inverse of its probability so both sides pay the same amount. For a 97% combined arb on a $1,000 total bankroll: stake $1000 × (49% ÷ 97%) ≈ $505 on YES at Kalshi and $1000 × (48% ÷ 97%) ≈ $495 on NO at DraftKings. Both legs return ~$1,030 — guaranteed ~$30 profit.
Are sportsbook + Kalshi arbs sustainable?
Yes. Kalshi is a regulated event-contracts exchange — they don't limit accounts for winning users the way sportsbooks do. Crossing a sportsbook against Kalshi is the safest arb path because the exchange leg is bulletproof.
How fresh is this data?
Kalshi quotes refresh every 5 minutes. Sportsbook quotes every 15-30 minutes. Polymarket every 15 minutes. Arbitrages close fast — what's visible here is what was true at page render time; verify both legs in their respective platforms before staking.