Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres: Home Runs — 2026 final odds
Kalshi closed with Manny Machado at 99.0% versus Xander Bogaerts at 99.0%. Final book consensus: Manny Machado — / Xander Bogaerts — / James McCann — / Gabriel Moreno — / Jackson Merrill — / Corbin Carroll — / Xander Bogaerts — / Tim Tawa — / Nolan Arenado — / Geraldo Perdomo — / Ethan Salas — / Pavin Smith — / Dustin Harris — / James McCann — / Ketel Marte — / Ketel Marte — / Fernando Tatis Jr. — / Gavin Sheets — / Lars Nootbaar — / Jake Cronenworth — / Ty France — / Jake Cronenworth — / Nolan Arenado — / Corbin Carroll — / Jackson Merrill — / Fernando Tatis Jr. — / Manny Machado — / Lars Nootbaar — / Gavin Sheets —.
Closing prices
| Side | Kalshi closing | Books median | Books count | Edge (books − Kalshi) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | 99.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Xander Bogaerts | 99.0% | — | 0 | — |
| James McCann | 99.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Gabriel Moreno | 20.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Jackson Merrill | 9.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Corbin Carroll | 5.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Xander Bogaerts | 4.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Tim Tawa | 3.5% | — | 0 | — |
| Nolan Arenado | 3.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 3.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Ethan Salas | 3.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Pavin Smith | 3.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Dustin Harris | 3.0% | — | 0 | — |
| James McCann | 3.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Ketel Marte | 2.5% | — | 0 | — |
| Ketel Marte | 2.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Gavin Sheets | 2.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Lars Nootbaar | 2.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Jake Cronenworth | 2.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Ty France | 2.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Jake Cronenworth | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Nolan Arenado | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Corbin Carroll | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Jackson Merrill | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Manny Machado | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Lars Nootbaar | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Gavin Sheets | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
Related
FAQ
- Did Kalshi correctly price Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres: Home Runs?
- At settlement, Kalshi had Manny Machado priced at 99.0% (closing implied probability). Compare against the de-vigged book median of — from 0 US sportsbooks.
- What was the final book consensus for Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres: Home Runs?
- Manny Machado: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Xander Bogaerts: — median de-vigged across 0 books · James McCann: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Gabriel Moreno: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Jackson Merrill: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Corbin Carroll: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Xander Bogaerts: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Tim Tawa: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Nolan Arenado: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Geraldo Perdomo: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Ethan Salas: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Pavin Smith: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Dustin Harris: — median de-vigged across 0 books · James McCann: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Ketel Marte: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Ketel Marte: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Fernando Tatis Jr.: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Gavin Sheets: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Lars Nootbaar: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Jake Cronenworth: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Ty France: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Jake Cronenworth: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Nolan Arenado: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Corbin Carroll: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Jackson Merrill: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Fernando Tatis Jr.: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Manny Machado: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Lars Nootbaar: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Gavin Sheets: — median de-vigged across 0 books
- Where can I find live Arizona Diamondbacks odds?
- For current MLB matchups, see the live MLB hub at /sports/mlb, or browse the full 2026 archive at /sports/mlb/2026.
This archive shows the final Kalshi and sportsbook prices captured when the event settled. For methodology see /about/methodology.