Houston vs Tampa Bay: Home Runs — 2026 final odds
Kalshi closed with Victor Mesa at 99.0% versus Jonathan Aranda at 80.0%. Final book consensus: Victor Mesa — / Jonathan Aranda — / Junior Caminero — / Chandler Simpson — / Yordan Alvarez — / Jorge Mateo — / Taylor Trammell — / Victor Mesa — / Christian Walker — / Daulton Varsho — / Cedric Mullins — / Junior Caminero — / Cam Smith — / Liam Hicks — / Nick Allen — / Jeremy Peña — / Jose Altuve — / Yandy Díaz — / Yainer Diaz — / Richie Palacios — / Yordan Alvarez — / Isaac Paredes — / Jeremy Peña — / Jose Altuve — / Yandy Díaz — / Christian Walker — / Jonathan Aranda — / Isaac Paredes — / Cam Smith — / Taylor Trammell — / Cedric Mullins — / Yainer Diaz — / Liam Hicks —.
Closing prices
| Side | Kalshi closing | Books median | Books count | Edge (books − Kalshi) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Mesa | 99.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Jonathan Aranda | 80.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Junior Caminero | 34.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Chandler Simpson | 34.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Yordan Alvarez | 23.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Jorge Mateo | 10.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Taylor Trammell | 7.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Victor Mesa | 6.5% | — | 0 | — |
| Christian Walker | 5.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Daulton Varsho | 5.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Cedric Mullins | 5.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Junior Caminero | 4.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Cam Smith | 4.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Liam Hicks | 4.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Nick Allen | 4.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Jeremy Peña | 3.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Jose Altuve | 3.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Yandy Díaz | 3.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Yainer Diaz | 3.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Richie Palacios | 3.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Yordan Alvarez | 2.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Isaac Paredes | 2.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Jeremy Peña | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Jose Altuve | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Yandy Díaz | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Christian Walker | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Isaac Paredes | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Cam Smith | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Taylor Trammell | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Cedric Mullins | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Yainer Diaz | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
| Liam Hicks | 1.0% | — | 0 | — |
Related
FAQ
- Did Kalshi correctly price Houston vs Tampa Bay: Home Runs?
- At settlement, Kalshi had Victor Mesa priced at 99.0% (closing implied probability). Compare against the de-vigged book median of — from 0 US sportsbooks.
- What was the final book consensus for Houston vs Tampa Bay: Home Runs?
- Victor Mesa: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Jonathan Aranda: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Junior Caminero: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Chandler Simpson: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Yordan Alvarez: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Jorge Mateo: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Taylor Trammell: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Victor Mesa: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Christian Walker: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Daulton Varsho: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Cedric Mullins: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Junior Caminero: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Cam Smith: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Liam Hicks: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Nick Allen: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Jeremy Peña: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Jose Altuve: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Yandy Díaz: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Yainer Diaz: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Richie Palacios: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Yordan Alvarez: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Isaac Paredes: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Jeremy Peña: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Jose Altuve: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Yandy Díaz: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Christian Walker: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Jonathan Aranda: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Isaac Paredes: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Cam Smith: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Taylor Trammell: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Cedric Mullins: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Yainer Diaz: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Liam Hicks: — median de-vigged across 0 books
- Where can I find live Houston odds?
- For current MLB matchups, see the live MLB hub at /sports/mlb, or browse the full 2026 archive at /sports/mlb/2026.
This archive shows the final Kalshi and sportsbook prices captured when the event settled. For methodology see /about/methodology.