Closing Line Value (CLV)

Closing line value is the gap between the price you got and the closing line — the price right before the event begins, which represents the market's best estimate of true probability.

Why CLV matters: the closing line is sharper than any individual bettor's model on average, because it incorporates all sharp money + book corrections in the hours before kickoff. If you consistently bet at prices BETTER than where the market closes, you're systematically beating the market — even if the specific bets win or lose, the price you got was favorable.

Calculating CLV (one common method): CLV % = (your_decimal_odds / closing_decimal_odds) - 1

Example: You bet Lakers -150 (decimal 1.67). Closing line: Lakers -200 (decimal 1.50). CLV = 1.67/1.50 - 1 = +11.3%. Positive — you got a better price than the market eventually agreed on.

Long-term CLV is more predictive of skill than win/loss record. A bettor with a 48% record but consistent +5% CLV is sharper than one with 52% wins but flat CLV — variance explains the win record, but only skill produces consistent CLV.

SportsBookISH's bet tracker (Elite) computes CLV for every logged bet using the close-of-market snapshot. CLV is one of the inputs to the Skill Score composite metric.