Edge

The percentage-point difference between a venue's implied probability and a more accurate reference probability. Positive edge means the venue is cheaper than fair — a buy signal.

Edge measures the gap between a price you can act on and a more reliable estimate of fair value. By SportsBookISH convention:

Edge = Reference Probability - Kalshi Implied Probability

Positive edge means Kalshi is cheaper than your reference (the price is too low → BUY on Kalshi). Negative edge means Kalshi is more expensive than reference (price too high → either SELL on Kalshi or BET the same side at a cheaper book).

The reference can be: - Books median (de-vigged) — the consensus across all sportsbooks we track. Default reference. - Your "home book" (Pro+ feature) — your preferred book's de-vigged price. Useful if you have an account at a specific book and want edges measured against that book. - DataGolf model — for golf only, the DataGolf strokes-gained baseline (Scratch+ subscription).

Edge is most meaningful when: 1. Multiple books agree (high book count → tighter consensus) 2. The market is liquid on Kalshi (real bids/asks, not just one-tick dust) 3. The reference is fresh (we filter out references older than 30 minutes)

A 3-percentage-point edge after Kalshi's fee is typically considered actionable; 5+ is strong.

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