Did Kalshi correctly price Paraguay vs Australia?

At settlement, Kalshi had Tie priced at 96.5% (closing implied probability). Compare against the de-vigged book median of — from 0 US sportsbooks.

What was the final book consensus for Paraguay vs Australia?

Tie: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Paraguay: 19.6% median de-vigged across 11 books · Australia: 15.2% median de-vigged across 11 books

For current WC matchups, see the live WC hub at /sports/wc, or browse the full 2026 archive at /sports/wc/2026.

wcgameSettledJune 26, 2026

Kalshi closed with Tie at 96.5% versus Paraguay at 2.5%. Final book consensus: Tie — / Paraguay 19.6% / Australia 15.2%.

Side	Kalshi closing	Books median	Books count	Edge (books − Kalshi)
Tie	96.5%	—	0	—
Paraguay	2.5%	19.6%	11	+17.1%
Australia	1.5%	15.2%	11	+13.7%

Did Kalshi correctly price Paraguay vs Australia?: At settlement, Kalshi had Tie priced at 96.5% (closing implied probability). Compare against the de-vigged book median of — from 0 US sportsbooks.
What was the final book consensus for Paraguay vs Australia?: Tie: — median de-vigged across 0 books · Paraguay: 19.6% median de-vigged across 11 books · Australia: 15.2% median de-vigged across 11 books
Where can I find live Paraguay odds?: For current WC matchups, see the live WC hub at /sports/wc, or browse the full 2026 archive at /sports/wc/2026.

This archive shows the final Kalshi and sportsbook prices captured when the event settled. For methodology see /about/methodology.