Kalshi vs Circa Sports — Where Event-Contract Prices Beat Circa Sports Lines
Compare Kalshi event-contract prices against Circa Sports sportsbook lines in real time. Find +EV opportunities where the regulated exchange disagrees with Circa Sports pricing.
Feature-by-feature comparison
| Dimension | Kalshi | Circa Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Category | prediction market | sportsbook |
| Founded | 2018 | 2019 |
| Headquarters | New York, NY | Las Vegas, NV |
| Regulator | Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) | Nevada Gaming Control Board + state gaming commissions (CO, IA, IL, KY) |
| States available | All 50 US states | Nevada (kiosk + app); Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky retail |
| Monthly volume | ~$200M+ (sports + politics combined, peaks during major events) | Undisclosed (private); reportedly $50–100M/month handle |
| Annual volume | $1B+ (2024 — driven by ~$430M on the US presidential market alone) | Undisclosed (private) |
| Total raised | $50M+ across Series A–C | N/A — privately held by the Stevens family |
| Reported valuation | ~$2B (reported, 2025) | N/A — private |
| Parent company | Independent | Circa Resort & Casino LLC (Stevens family) |
| Public ticker | Private | Private |
| Fee structure | 0.07% per side, capped at 7¢/contract; 2¢ near 50% probability | Standard sportsbook vig (~3–4% on moneylines, often tighter than DK/FD) |
| Min position | $0.01 (1 contract × $0.01–$0.99 YES/NO) | $0.50 minimum bet |
| Max position | Limited only by orderbook depth — no per-user account caps | Highest limits in the regulated US market — published max limits, no winner limiting |
| Settlement | USD | USD |
| Withdrawal | 1–3 business days via ACH; same-day for wire | Same-day in Nevada retail; 1–3 business days for app withdrawals |
| Payments | ACH (Plaid), Debit card, Wire transfer (high-volume) | Cash (retail), Debit card, VIP Preferred (+1 more) |
| Mobile apps | iOS (App Store), Android (Google Play) | iOS, Android (Nevada + Colorado + Iowa + Illinois + Kentucky) |
| Product categories | Sports, Politics, Climate, Economics (+2 more) | Sports betting (sharp-focused), Sports betting contests ($14M+ Circa Million), Circa Survivor NFL pool |
Use Kalshi when…
- US users in states where sportsbooks aren't licensed (CA, TX, HI)
- Sharp users who get limited at FanDuel/DraftKings
- Anyone who wants no-vig pricing on championship/MVP/season-long markets
- Traders who want to short an outcome (sell YES) without needing to find the opposite-side book
Use Circa Sports when…
- Sharps who get limited at DraftKings/FanDuel
- NFL bettors who want sharpest opening lines
- Contest players (Circa Million, Circa Survivor are best-in-class)
- Anyone willing to trade promo dollars for line quality
Kalshi strengths
- Only federally regulated US prediction market — works in every state
- No vig / no house edge — peer-to-peer pricing
- USD settlement direct to bank — no crypto required
- No per-user limits — sharps don't get throttled the way sportsbooks throttle winners
- Mobile apps with full feature parity (place, trade, settle from phone)
Kalshi trade-offs
- Thinner sports market coverage than DraftKings/FanDuel on game-level props
- Lower liquidity on niche markets — spreads can be 5¢+ on illiquid contracts
- Newer to sports — settlement disputes occasionally arise on non-canonical sources
- Cannot place same-game parlays/combos — single-contract structure only
Circa Sports strengths
- Only major US sportsbook that doesn't limit winning bettors — published, repeatedly confirmed
- Highest accepted bet limits in regulated US ($25k+ on NFL sides routinely)
- Sharp opening lines on NFL — Circa is often the price discovery venue
- Family-owned, no public-earnings-pressure to maximize hold against sharps
- Legendary contests (Circa Million $14M+, Circa Survivor) — competition-level engagement
Circa Sports trade-offs
- Limited state availability (NV + CO + IA + IL + KY — not in 25+ states like DK/FD)
- Shallow player-prop coverage vs DraftKings/FanDuel
- No same-game parlays — by design, but a deal-breaker for SGP-focused recreational users
- No traditional new-user promo (Circa's pitch is sharp lines, not deposit bonuses)
- App polish trails DK/FD
Kalshi vs Circa Sports — where the EV lives
Kalshi is an event-contracts exchange — sports outcomes trade as YES/NO contracts at user-set prices. Circa Sports is a state-licensed sportsbook — you're betting against the house at vigged prices. The structural difference means Kalshi and Circa Sports regularly disagree by 3-10pp on the same market.
SportsBookISH overlays both side-by-side so the gaps are visible without manually pulling up two apps. Median absolute gap on major-league moneylines is around 3-4pp; the tails (10pp+ divergences) appear in roughly 5% of open markets and are usually where the meaningful edge sits.
FAQ
Sources and further reading
All figures best-effort as of 2025-Q4. Funding, valuations, and volume are sourced from public filings, official communications, and third-party trackers (Crunchbase, Wikipedia). Affiliate disclosure: SportsBookISH may receive a referral commission when readers sign up for a regulated sportsbook or prediction market via links on this page.
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